Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL nine months ago, and Andy Reid just told reporters there’s a “pretty good chance” he starts Kansas City’s Week 1 opener Monday night against Denver anyway.
Reid told reporters this week that Mahomes will “most likely” be the guy out there against the Broncos, barring something unexpected in the next couple of days. That’s a rust bet, not a health update, and Reid is choosing to answer it live, with zero preseason reps banked first.
Nine months ago, that same knee buckled on a plant step while Mahomes scrambled away from pressure in a Week 15 loss to the Chargers. Surgery followed the next day in Dallas, and the recovery timeline the Chiefs’ medical staff set lands almost exactly on Monday’s kickoff. That loss eliminated Kansas City from the playoffs at 6-8, the first missed postseason of Mahomes’ career and the franchise’s first since 2014, per multiple reports from that night.
I run the same four miles along the lake every morning, and something in my own left knee has never quite forgiven last winter’s ice patch. So no, I don’t buy that any knee is fully back nine months out.
Not even his.
But that’s not the bet Reid is actually making. Mahomes skipped his whole preseason for the first time ever in his career, which means Monday will be the first live look anyone gets at how the mobility actually holds up in a real pocket, at real speed, against a real pass rush. Quarterbacks who miss a full offseason of live reps usually need a series or two to find their timing again, and the Chiefs are handing that adjustment window to a divisional opponent instead of a tune-up week against a third-string secondary.
Denver has spent its offseason gameplanning for exactly this matchup. PFF’s preseason power rankings still like the Broncos defense, built around Pat Surtain II, Nik Bonitto and Talanoa Hufanga under coordinator Vance Joseph. They’ve had months of film and practice reps to prepare for a Chiefs offense that hasn’t taken a competitive snap since Mahomes’ knee was still in a brace.
Adam Schefter posted this:
https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/2097376013193818578
Schefter’s framing matches Reid’s exactly: health first, everything else assumed. Andy Reid’s pretty good chance is basically a confirmation dressed up as a caveat, and it treats “ready” as a medical-clearance question instead of a rust question. Denver gets nine months of tape-free Kansas City Chiefs football and one live half to find whatever’s different, same as everyone else watching the rest of Week 1’s NFL storylines unfold.
Nine months fixed the knee. It didn’t buy Denver a single frame of tape.
