The Jacksonville Jaguars rank second in the league in points allowed, at 15.1 per game, and 22nd in passing yards allowed, at 229.0 per game. Those two numbers sit on the same defense, and the distance between them explains why Jacksonville sent a 2027 second-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick to the Falcons for safety Jessie Bates III.
Why did the Jaguars need a safety?
The Jaguars needed a safety because their scoring defense is elite while their pass defense is not, and the injuries are concentrated in the back end. Safety Eric Murray is out for the season with an elbow injury, and Caleb Ransaw is on injured reserve with a knee injury.
Here is what that looks like when you put the injury list next to the ranks. Murray was a starting safety, and he got hurt on the first play of Week 8 before landing on injured reserve on Nov. 3. Ransaw went on injured reserve back on Oct. 6. Antonio Johnson is playing through an ankle injury in the final year of his rookie deal. Three safeties are hurt or banged up, and a team that is 6-2 and three games clear in the AFC South still has a hole.
Run defense is a different story. Jacksonville is fifth in rushing yards allowed at 89.3 per game, though it turned in its worst performance of the season against the Ravens on Thursday. Defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton is out for the year with a torn quad, which is where the second trade comes in. Jacksonville sent a conditional 2028 sixth-round pick to New Orleans for defensive tackle Davon Godchaux, who had 15 tackles in eight games with the Saints and will slide in next to Arik Armstead as a run defender. NFL.com notes the pick becomes a 2027 sixth if Jacksonville acquires one.
What does the price actually buy?
The price buys a 29-year-old safety in the final year of a four-year, $64 million contract. Bates made the Pro Bowl in 2023 and has 28 career interceptions. He is a rental, and I think a second-round pick is a steep fee for that.
Now the arithmetic that makes the fee sting. Bates turns 30 in February, he has played parts of nine seasons with the Falcons and Bengals, and he has missed only three games in that time. Atlanta is paying most of his remaining salary. That helps with this season, but 2027 is a separate problem, when OverTheCap projects Jacksonville will be $15.4 million over the cap. He is expected to hit free agency this offseason.
Bates announced the move himself.
https://x.com/jlbiii3/status/2119785474378371139
The secondary is now one durable veteran deeper, and durability is the point. A player who has missed three games in nine seasons is the opposite of a depth chart that has lost players to elbow, quad and knee injuries.
The counterargument
The strongest case against the trade is the one the scoreboard makes. The Jaguars have allowed 15.1 points per game, they are 6-2, and they beat the Eagles earlier this season. A team with the second-best scoring defense in the league can reasonably say it was not broken.
I would answer that with the passing number. Points allowed can hide a weak pass defense for a while, and a 22nd-place passing rank sitting under a top-two scoring defense is a gap worth closing before the games get harder. Whether a second-round pick was the right currency is a judgment call, and reasonable people will land on either side.
Atlanta, at 3-6 and one game behind in the NFC South, expects Xavier Watts to step into Bates’ old role. Jacksonville’s version of the test is simpler: the passing rank is 22nd today, and by the time the Jaguars play their last regular-season game, the safety they just bought will have had a say in whether it moved.
