Stephen Curry walked off in Houston with 6:25 left in the first quarter on Wednesday, and by Thursday the Golden State Warriors had a seven-game problem with a name attached. I’m calling it the Spirit Ledger. ESPN’s Anthony Slater reported that an MRI confirmed an oblique tear, that Curry will be out at least two weeks, and that he will miss at least seven games: the Spurs, Pelicans, Mavericks, Grizzlies, Celtics, Kings and Trail Blazers.

Golden State was 8-4 and coming off an eight-game win streak. The Warriors trailed the Rockets 19-10 when Curry exited, tied the game, and still lost 115-108.

https://x.com/warriors/status/2120924619754389853

The Ledger works like this. Each of the seven games gets one question: did this team win the way a team with an identity wins, or did it lose the way a team missing its best player loses? Add up the answers and you get a verdict on the only claim in this story that can be tested. Draymond Green said the spirit of this team is better, and that the Warriors are in a better position to succeed without Curry than they were a year ago.

That is a bold thing to say about a team that just lost the best shooter of his generation, so let’s price it.

Which of the seven games actually decide this?

The middle of the list. All seven count, but the first two get graded on adrenaline, because any team can rally around a fresh injury announcement for a few nights. Games three through five, in ESPN’s order the Mavericks, Grizzlies and Celtics, are where the novelty wears off and the rotation has to hold up on its own.

Start with what is missing. Curry is averaging 27.8 points in 26.3 minutes, which works out to more than a point for every minute he plays. He is also shooting a career-high 45.7 percent from three. Those minutes are not coming back in two weeks, and no teammate replaces that volume by himself.

The rest of the roster is not deep enough to hide the gap. Butler and Moody are out long-term with knee injuries. Steve Kerr’s own assessment was four words: “Concern is high.” Curry reportedly told Kerr he had never felt this type of injury before, which is the sort of detail that makes a two-week timeline feel like a floor.

Here is the grading scale I would use. Win three or four of the seven and the Warriors have proven the claim at least in part. Win five or more and Draymond has earned the victory lap. Win two or fewer and the 13-26 record from last season starts to look like a preview.

Why does 13-26 not settle it?

Because it measures last season’s team, and last season’s team is not the one playing now. The Warriors went 13-26 in the 39 games Curry missed last year, which is a solid sample. This season they are 1-1 without him, which is a coin flip. Neither number can settle the argument alone.

Draymond is entitled to the comparison with last year. His claim, though, is about identity, and a roster injury list does not touch identity. It only makes the test harder.

That is why the schedule matters more than the record. Thirteen wins in 39 games works out to about a third of them. Apply that rate to seven games and you get between two and three wins. Apply this season’s 1-1 mark and you get something closer to three and a half. The gap between those two projections is about one game, and that one game is the whole argument.

Curry’s early-season scoring run is the reason the gap looks so large on paper. The next fortnight shows what the roster looks like without him, and Draymond has volunteered to be the measuring stick.

Treat the Ledger as a way to read the games as they arrive, not as a prediction. Games one and two, the Spurs and Pelicans, tell you whether the Warriors can absorb the shock. Games three through five tell you whether the rotation can sustain it. The last two, the Kings and Trail Blazers, tell you whether the group still has anything left once the injury list has been the headline for two weeks.

Notice what the Ledger does not need: opponent records, lineup charts, or a debate about who replaces Curry’s shots. It needs only wins and the manner of them. A close loss where the Warriors defended and scrambled counts differently from a game that got away in the second quarter, and that is the distinction Draymond’s word “spirit” is asking us to make. Whether anyone can measure spirit is a fair argument, but seven games are enough to see whether it exists.

There is also the matter of the timeline. Two weeks is the re-evaluation window, and ESPN’s list makes it seven games at minimum. If Curry’s recovery runs past the end of the list, the Ledger simply keeps going, and the sample grows.

My line is simple. Three wins in seven and Draymond keeps his claim. Two or fewer and the Warriors get to spend the rest of November explaining why 13-26 was never a fluke.